Intraseasonal oscillation intensity over the western North Pacific:Projected changes under global warming

被引：0
|
作者：
Yi Fan [1 ,2 ]
Ke Fan [3 ,4 ]
Zhiqing Xu [2 ]
机构：
[1] Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology
[2] Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences
[3] School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University
[4] Southern Laboratory of Ocean Science and Engineering (Zhuhai)
来源：
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters | 2021年 / 14卷 / 04期
基金：
国家重点研发计划;
关键词：
季节内振荡强度; 典型浓度路径; 全球增温1.5℃和2.0℃; 西北太平洋;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
P461.2 [];
学科分类号：
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要：
本文利用8个CMIP5模式的日资料,预估了RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下全球增温达1.5℃和2.0℃时西北太平洋夏季30～60天和10～20天季节内振荡(ISO)强度的变化情况.大多数模式都认为,无论增温水平或情景如何,预估结果均显示从中南半岛南部到菲律宾以东的带状区域内ISO强度增加,并且关键气象要素背景的变化会对ISO强度异常的空间分布造成影响.具体表现为,ISO强度增大的区域往往伴随着低层湿度和湿静力能的增加.其中菲律宾东部的湿度变化最为明显,ICP南部的湿静力能变化最为明显,上述区域的ISO强度均增强.相反,印度尼西亚西部和菲律宾东北部有局地下沉运动增强,当地的ISO强度减小.
引用
收藏
页码：3 / 8
页数：6
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