Technical and Structural Effects of China's TFP Growth

TFP growth may derive from both technology progress(technical effect) and factor allocation(structural effect). Using China’s macroeconomic and industrial data, this paper decomposes China’s TFP growth on the basis of growth accounting to cast light on China’s growth sources since reform and opening up in 1978. Our study has led to the following findings:(1) From 1978 to 2014, China’s economic growth was of generally good quality, and about 1/3 of growth momentum stemmed from a general technology improvement.(2) After 2005, China’s late-mover advantage diminished due to narrowed technology gaps with advanced economies. This resulted in a sharp decline in the contribution of technology progress to growth. However, structural effect contributed a steadily increasing share to China’s growth.(3) After global financial crisis in 2008, there has been a tendency of reverse technology progress in terms of factor allocation in sectors with excess industrial capacity and other sectors like finance and real estate. Therefore, China should divert its factor resources to more tech-intensive and efficient sectors in the short run, and strive to promote technology progress in all sectors in a longer timeframe.