Statistical seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfalls on Taiwan Island

被引：0
|
作者：
Ziqing Chen [1 ]
Kelvin TFChan [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Zawai Luo [1 ]
机构：
[1] School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
[2] Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-sen University
[3] Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System (Sun Yat-sen University), Ministry of
来源：
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters | 2025年 / 18卷 / 02期
关键词：
季节预报; 热带气旋; 台湾岛; 登陆;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
P457.8 [热带气旋、台风、飓风预报];
学科分类号：
摘要：
本文利用1979–2013年的两个主流再分析数据集,提出了一个中山大学(SYSU)热带气旋统计季节预报模型,基于4个季前环境因子对登陆台湾岛的热带气旋数量进行预报.模型通过了留一法,九折交叉验证法和近9年观测数据(2014–2022)的验证,模型结果与实际观测的相关系数达0.87.南极涛动,西太平洋副热带高压变化,亚洲夏季风和海洋通道是模型潜在的物理联系或机制. SYSU模型在1979–2022年期间的预报准确率为98%,表现出其业务应用价值.
引用
收藏
页码：45 / 51
页数：7
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