Influence of parameter uncertainty upon complexity of creep behavior of P91 steel

被引：0

作者：

Ren, Siyu ^{[1
]}

Liu, Xinbao ^{[1
]}

Zhu, Lin ^{[1
]}

Fan, Ping ^{[2
]}

Song, Chaolu ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Kai ^{[1
]}

Chen, Jie ^{[1
]}

Chen, Hongtao ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Northwest Univ, Sch Chem Engn, Xian 710069, Peoples R China

[2] Northwest Univ, Sch Informat Sci & Technol, Xian 710127, Peoples R China

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRESSURE VESSELS AND PIPING | 2025年 / 214卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

P91; steel; WCS model; Creep life prediction; Uncertainty; Probabilistic method; EVOLUTION;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ijpvp.2025.105436

中图分类号：

T [工业技术];

学科分类号：

08 ;

摘要：

With the Wilshire-Cano-Stewart (WCS) model and probability theory, this study dealt with the reliable prediction of creep rupture time for P91 heat-resistant steel. Firstly, the WCS model parameters were calibrated using creep test data of P91 steel, and the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of which were determined. Then, the sources of uncertainties were incorporated into the model through calibrated the PDFs by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm. Consequently, the short-term and long-term creep rupture times of P91 steel were predicted using the probabilistic WCS model, respectively. The obtained results suggested that due to the complex uncertainties, the proposition of the probabilistic model offers an effective tool to predict the bounds of long-term creep rupture time for steels in particular.

引用

页数：11

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