Long-term trends in abundance and potential drivers for eight species of coastal birds in the US South Atlantic

The U.S. South Atlantic coastal region is used by many marine birds for foraging, reproduction, and migration. We developed standardized indices of relative abundance from long-term (1980-2016), semi-structured monitoring data (eBird) for eight species: Brown Pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis), Double-Crested Cormorant (Nannopterum auritum), White Ibis (Eudocimus albus), Wood Stork (Mycteria americana), Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus), American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus), Clapper Rail (Rallus crepitans), and Northern Gannet (Morus bassanus). Following a period of stable or declining abundance from the 1980s through the 1990s, most species have shown stable or slightly upward trends through the late 2000s; Brown Pelican and Piping Plover have shown some evidence of recent declines. Species-specific correlations between abundance indices developed from presence/absence data and those developed from count data were positive for all species and ranged from 0.53 to 0.86. Dynamic factor analysis identified common trends in abundance among several species, in particular, Brown Pelican, Double-Crested Cormorant, and White Ibis. Model performance was improved with inclusion of an indicator of sea level rise, but not forage fish abundance or temperature, indicating habitat availability mediated by changing water levels may explain some of the underlying abundance trends. Our results provide baseline information on long-term trends for several important coastal birds that can help inform research, monitoring and conservation efforts in the U.S. South Atlantic region.