Research on Typhoon Prediction by Integrating Numerical Simulation and Deep Learning Methods

Typhoons rank among the most destructive natural disasters, significantly affecting human activities and daily life. Atmospheric numerical model wind fields, which are widely utilized, often underestimate typhoon intensity. This study proposes a model for predicting typhoon maximum wind speeds using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network. The model predicts maximum wind speeds based on existing atmospheric numerical forecasts, constructs a parametric wind field model from these predictions, and integrates it with the numerical model wind fields to generate an LSTM-optimized wind field. The results show that the LSTM model accurately predicts typhoon maximum wind speeds, with the predicted extreme values closely aligning with actual observations and capturing the trends of maximum wind speed variations. Compared with the ERA5 typhoon maximum wind speed, the C of the LSTM model for predicting the typhoon maximum wind speed is improved from 0.801 to 0.859, and the RMSE and MAE are reduced by 58% and 64%, respectively. In the simulation of Typhoon DELTA (2020), the LSTM-optimized wind field exhibits substantially higher wind speed intensities in the central region of the typhoon compared to the ERA5 wind field, providing a more accurate representation of the intensity and structure of the typhoon.