Climate justice or inequality lock-in? Analysis of US incarceration in a changing climate

The concept of carbon lock-in has been applied to the infrastructure, institutions, and discourses that lock society into carbon technologies, and simultaneously lock out lower-carbon alternatives. However, climate transitions have implications that extend beyond carbon and related environmental considerations. Systems of social inequality are also inextricably linked to and impacted by climate change governance and related actions. This article develops a framework to analyze inequality lock-in and disruption as part of climate transitions in particular sectors or industries. We conceptualize four distinct forms of climate transitions in relation to inequality: decarbonization lock-in, adaptation lock-in, decarbonization disruption, and adaptation disruption. Moreover, the framework conceptualizes the material mechanisms through which inequality is locked-in, or alternatively, disrupted by climate actions. Applying this framework to analyze the case of incarceration in the United States suggests that decarbonization and climate adaptation policies and practices are currently weighted toward further locking-in inequality in carceral systems.