Risk analysis of ship methanol fuel system based on fuzzy Bayesian network model based on Bow-tie diagram

In the context of decarbonization and emission reduction, methanol has become a viable option among many alternative fuels. However, methanol's own risk factors pose a huge threat to ships and their people. This paper analyses the risk of leakage in methanol fuel systems of methanol dual-fuel powered ships. The Bow-tie diagram model of methanol fuel system leakage is established, and it is transformed into a Bayesian network model according to the mapping rules, and the fuzzy probability of fuzzy evaluation and multi-level expert evaluation is used as the prior probability, and the Leaky Noisy-OR gate model is used to establish the expression of the conditional probability table to analyse the leakage risk of methanol fuel system. The results show that a considerable part of the leakage risk comes from human and management factors, and equipment corrosion will also bring certain risks. It brings some enlightenment to the safe operation and risk avoidance of methanol dual-fuel powered ships.