Modeling the potential distribution and shift of an Algerian endangered endemic species ( Cedrus atlantica) ) under climate change scenarios: Implications for conservation

Algeria is distinguished by its geographical and climatic diversity, which contains a varied flora and endemic species, being recognized as one of the biodiversity hot-spots of the Mediterranean region. Among its endemic species, the renowned Atlas cedar ( Cedrus atlantica) ) is particularly notable as it exclusively grows in the Atlas Mountains. Classified as endangered species by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, because of its endemism and also because dramatic declining populations over the past four decades. Forecasting the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of this species might help in devising effective conservation strategies. Under this backdrop, this study aimed to simulate the current distribution of suitable habitat for C. atlantica in Algeria and investigate the influence of climate change on its distribution range by the years 2050, 2070 and 2090. The distribution was modeled using Maximum Entropy (Maxent) based on locality information of 103 occurrence sites of the species and nine different environmental variables. The model showed that annual mean temperature and elevation were the most important environmental factors affecting the distribution of C. atlantica in Algeria. Currently, the total suitable habitats for this species, including both medium and high suitability habitats, cover a total area of 1837 km2 , 2 , yet its distribution is relatively narrow and fragmented. This area would obviously decrease under all future climate change scenarios, shifting northwestward and to higher elevations, where conditions conducive to the species' expansion will exist. Our results showed that at lower elevations and latitudes the species is highly prone to the effects of climate change, and they are confronted with an augmented risk of extinction across diverse climatic scenarios. This research provides valuable information for the more effective conservation and sustainable management of C. atlantica in the face of climate change challenges.