Nomogram to Predict Tumor Remnant of Small Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Microwave Ablation

Rationale and Objectives: This investigation sought to create a nomogram to predict the ablation effect after microwave ablation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, which can guide the selection of microwave ablation for small hepatocellular carcinomas. Methods: In this two-center retrospective study, 233 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with microwave ablation (MWA) between January 2016 and December 2023 were enrolled and analyzed for their clinical baseline data, laboratory parameters, and MR imaging characteristics. Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the features, and clinical and imaging feature models were developed separately. Finally, a nomogram was established. All models were evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Two models and a nomogram were developed to predict ablation outcomes after MWA based on a training set (n = 182, including complete ablation: 136, incomplete ablation: 46) and an external validation set (n = 51, complete ablation: 36, incomplete ablation: 15). The clinical models and nomogram performed well in the external validation cohort. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.966 (95% CI: 0.944- 0.989), with a sensitivity of 0.935, a specificity of 0.882, and an accuracy of 0.896. Conclusions: Combining clinical data and imaging features, a nomogram was constructed that could effectively predict the postoperative ablation outcome in hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing MWA, which could help clinicians provide treatment options for hepatocellular carcinoma patients.