Modeling the Relation Between Non-Communicable Diseases and the Health Habits of the Mexican Working Population: A Hybrid Modeling Approach

The impact that Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) have on the health status of the population has generated the need for an in-depth analysis of health habits and NCDs. In addition to its significant impact on population health, this phenomenon also translates into substantial economic consequences for countries. This study delves into the analysis of the relationship between health habits and NCDs among the economically active population of Mexico. Through a hybrid approach that integrates the use of machine learning (ML) models and a structural equation model (SEM), we seek to quantify the direct and indirect causal effects between health habits and NCDs. For this study, information from the 2022 National Health and Nutrition Survey carried out in Mexico for the working-age population is used. According to the results obtained in the first stage of analysis using ML, the most relevant variables (health habits) that impact the probability of individuals presenting with NCDs were identified (random forest precision of 78.66% and Lasso with 71.27%). The second stage of analysis through SEM using the most relevant variables, which were selected through ML, allowed us to measure the direct and indirect causal effect of health habits on NCDs. The SEM model was statistically significant (Chi-square: 449.186; p-value = 0.0000) and revealed that negative health habits, such as a poor diet, physical inactivity, smoking and alcohol consumption, significantly increase the risk of NCDs in the working-age population in Mexico (0.23), while vigorous physical activity and salary has a negative impact (-0.17 and -0.23, respectively) on the presence of NCDs. This study highlights the ability of machine learning and SEM approaches to model the impact of health habits on NCDs for the economically active population in Mexico.