Analysing dengue fever spread in Kenya using the Zero-Inflated Poisson model

被引:0
|
作者
Agasa, Lameck Ondieki [1 ,2 ]
Thuita, Faith [1 ]
Achia, Thomas [3 ]
Karanja, Antony [4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Nairobi, Fac Hlth Sci, Dept Publ & Global Hlth, Nairobi, Kenya
[2] Kisii Univ, Sch Hlth Sci, Dept Community Hlth & Behav Sci, Kisii, Kenya
[3] Strathmore Univ, Inst Math Sci, Nairobi, Kenya
[4] Multimedia Univ, Fac Sci & Technol, Dept Math, Nairobi, Kenya
关键词
dengue fever; Zero-Inflated Poisson model; climatic factors; epidemiology; Kenya; COUNT DATA; REGRESSION;
D O I
10.4102/jphia.v16i1.781
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
Background: Dengue fever (DF), transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, remains a major public health concern in tropical and subtropical regions. Understanding the influence of climatic variables on DF incidence is essential for improving outbreak prediction and control measures. Aim: This study analysed the impact of climatic factors on DF incidence in Kenya using a Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model. Setting: The study focused on DF cases in Kenya from 2019 to 2021. Methods: A ZIP model was applied to monthly dengue case data and associated climatic variables, such as temperature, rainfall, and humidity. The model addresses over-dispersion and excess zeros in the data, providing a more accurate depiction of DF dynamics. Results: The ZIP model revealed significant associations between climatic variables and DF incidence. Humidity (beta = 0.0578, standard error [s.e.] = 0.0024, z = 24.157, p < 2e-16) and temperature (beta = 0.0558, s.e. = 0.0053, z = 10.497, p < 0.01) showed a positive relationship with dengue cases, while rainfall (beta = -0.0045, s.e. = 0.0003, z = -16.523, p < 0.01) had a significant negative effect. The over-dispersion test confirmed excess variability in the data (O statistic = 456.3, p = 0.004), and the Vuong test supported the use of the ZIP model over a standard Poisson model. Model comparison indicated superior fit for the ZIP model (akaike information criterion [AIC] = 5230.959 vs. 27061.367 for Poisson), effectively accounting for zero-inflation. Conclusion: The results suggest that higher humidity and temperature favor dengue transmission, while heavy rainfall may disrupt mosquito breeding, reducing cases. These findings provide a basis for targeted public health interventions. Contribution: This study enhances understanding of DF-climate interactions in Kenya, supporting the application of ZIP modelling for improved disease surveillance and control strategies.
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页数:8
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