Carbon emission inventory and mitigation potential for private cars in Chinese cities

Clarifying CO2 emissions and driving factors of private cars is crucial for China's transport sector to achieve 'dual carbon goals'. While there are significant regional differences in China's private vehicle emission levels and driving forces, current analyses of private vehicle CO2 emissions and driving forces rarely consider the inherent differences in urban development. This study used a bottom-up method to develop a CO2 emission inventory for city-scale private car sectors and employed the LMDI model to assess CO2 emission drivers. Predictions for the peak of private cars in Chinese cities before 2035 were made. Results indicated that 49.5 % of cities reached peak emissions by 2020, with the increase in new energy vehicles significantly reducing emissions. Super-large cities often had a minimal impact on emissions growth. The increase in per capita stock was the primary driver of emission growth (+99.84 %), while energy consumption reduction was the most effective factor in emission reduction (-22.84 %). With current policies, China's private car section was expected to reach carbon peak around 2025, with over 76 % of cities achieving carbon peak.