IMPACTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH FOREST PRESERVATION IN THE AMAZON AND CERRADO BIOMES IN BRAZIL

Brazil is a major agricultural producer and exporter, with agribusiness accounting for 26.6% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). The growth of agriculture is the result of increased agricultural productivity and expansion over native vegetation. Deforestation causes direct and indirect changes in land use and increases in gross greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Brazil has ambitious GHG mitigation and deforestation reduction goals, facing a possible tradeoff between environmental conservation and economic growth. The main objective of this research was to analyze the economic and environmental impacts of "Green Growth" scenarios in the main Brazilian biomes. The model built and used for this analysis, the Brazilian Biomes, Land Use and Emissions Economic Model (BLUME), brings important methodological advances for integrated economic modeling with environmental aspects in Brazil. The results indicate that simulated policies would be able to avoid part of national emissions at a relatively small cost compared to national GDP.