The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): A New Scenario and Simulation Framework to Investigate the Future of the World Fisheries

被引：0

作者：

Maury, O. ^{[1
]}

Tittensor, D. P. ^{[2
]}

Eddy, T. D. ^{[3
]}

Allison, E. H. ^{[4
,5
]}

Bahri, T. ^{[6
]}

Barrier, N. ^{[1
]}

Campling, L. ^{[7
]}

Cheung, W. W. L. ^{[8
]}

Frieler, K. ^{[9
]}

Fulton, E. A. ^{[10
,11
]}

Guillotreau, P. ^{[1
]}

Heneghan, R. F. ^{[12
,13
]}

Lam, V. W. Y. ^{[8
]}

Leclere, D. ^{[14
]}

Lengaigne, M. ^{[1
]}

Lotze-Campen, H. ^{[9
,15
]}

Novaglio, C. ^{[6
,16
]}

Ortega-Cisneros, K. ^{[17
]}

Rault, J. ^{[18
]}

Schewe, J. ^{[9
]}

Shin, Y. -j.

Sloterdijk, H. ^{[19
]}

Squires, D. ^{[20
]}

Sumaila, U. R. ^{[8
,21
]}

Tidd, A. N. ^{[1
]}

van Ruijven, B. ^{[14
]}

Blanchard, J. ^{[16
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Montpellier, MARBEC, IRD, CNRS,Ifremer,INRAE, Sete, France

[2] Dalhousie Univ, Dept Biol, Halifax, NS, Canada

[3] Mem Univ, Fisheries & Marine Inst, Ctr Fisheries Ecosyst Res, St John, NF, Canada

[4] WorldFish, Bayan Lepas, Penang, Malaysia

[5] Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster, England

[6] Food & Agr Org, Rome, Italy

[7] Queen Mary Univ London, Sch Business & Management, London, England

[8] Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, Vancouver, BC, Canada

[9] GFZ Potsdam, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany

[10] CSIRO Environm, Hobart, Tas, Australia

[11] Univ Tasmania, Ctr Marine Socioecol, Hobart, Tas, Australia

[12] Univ Sunshine Coast, Sch Sci Technol & Engn, Petrie, Qld, Australia

[13] Griffith Univ, Sch Environm & Sci, Australian Rivers Inst, Nathan, Qld, Australia

[14] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

[15] Univ Humboldt Berlin, Berlin, Germany

[16] Univ Tasmania, Inst Marine & Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tas, Australia

[17] Univ Cape Town, Dept Biol Sci, Cape Town, South Africa

[18] IFREMER, Ctr Bretagne, Plouzane, France

[19] Christian Albrechts Univ Kiel, Ctr Ocean & Soc, Kiel, Germany

[20] Univ Calif San Diego, San Diego, CA USA

[21] Univ British Columbia, Sch Publ Policy & Global Affairs, Vancouver, BC, Canada

来源：

EARTHS FUTURE | 2025年 / 13卷 / 03期

基金：

芬兰科学院; 澳大利亚研究理事会; 加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会; 欧盟地平线“2020”; 新加坡国家研究基金会;

关键词：

climate change impact; marine ecosystems; marine fisheries; FishMIP; scenarios; SSP;

D O I：

10.1029/2024EF004851

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) has dedicated a decade to unraveling the future impacts of climate change on marine animal biomass. FishMIP is now preparing a new simulation protocol to assess the combined effects of both climate and socio-economic changes on marine fisheries and ecosystems. This protocol will be based on the Ocean System Pathways (OSPs), a new set of socio-economic scenarios derived from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) widely used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The OSPs extend the SSPs to the economic, governance, management and socio-cultural contexts of large pelagic, small pelagic, benthic-demersal and emerging fisheries, as well as mariculture. Comprising qualitative storylines, quantitative model driver pathways and a "plug-in-model" framework, the OSPs will enable a heterogeneous suite of ecosystem models to simulate fisheries dynamics in a standardised way. This paper introduces this OSP framework and the simulation protocol that FishMIP will implement to explore future ocean social-ecological systems holistically, with a focus on critical issues such as climate justice, global food security, equitable fisheries, aquaculture development, fisheries management, and biodiversity conservation. Ultimately, the OSP framework is tailored to contribute to the synthesis work of the IPCC. It also aims to inform ongoing policy processes within the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Finally, it seeks to support the synthesis work of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), with a particular focus on studying pathways relevant for the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity.

引用

页数：16

共 42 条

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