Road Freight Demand Forecasting Using National Accounts' Data-The Case of Cereals

被引：0

作者：

Karasu, Taha ^{[1
]}

Leviakangas, Pekka ^{[1
]}

Edwards, David John ^{[2
,3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oulu, Dept Civil Engn, Oulu 90570, Finland

[2] Birmingham City Univ, Sch Engn & Built Environm, Birmingham B4 7XG, England

[3] Univ Johannesburg, Fac Engn & Built Environm, ZA-2092 Johannesburg, South Africa

来源：

AGRICULTURE-BASEL | 2024年 / 14卷 / 11期

关键词：

supply chains; demand forecasting; road freight; agriculture; regression; cereals; TRANSPORTATION; FOOD;

D O I：

10.3390/agriculture14111980

中图分类号：

S3 [农学（农艺学）];

学科分类号：

0901 ;

摘要：

This paper investigates the potential of utilising historical agricultural production data for enhancing road freight transport forecasting, focusing on cereal production. This study applies a multiple linear regression analysis using national statistical accounts and secondary data. The data were sourced from Finland's Statistics Agency and the Natural Resources Institute. The analysis identifies an observable correlation between agricultural production and road freight volumes, although this correlation is not statistically significant. The highest adjusted R-2 observed in the models was 0.62. The analysis reveals that previous years' production data can help forecast future road freight volumes, with vehicle mileage estimable from recent production and stock levels. Additionally, annual percentage changes in the volume of transported cereals can be partially predicted by the changes in total available cereals and opening stocks from two years prior. This exploratory research highlights the untapped predictive potential of agricultural production variables in forecasting road freight demand, suggesting areas for further forecasting enhancement.

引用

页数：19

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