Research on the Collaborative Transition of the Building and Power Sectors for Carbon Peaking and Neutrality Goals in China

The building is one of the primary sectors for energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. It is of great significance for achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals through deep coupling between the building and the power industry. Based on the National Energy Strategy and Planning Model (NESAP), this paper provides a detailed analysis of the collaborative energy conservation and carbon mitigation paths between the building and power sectors from the cross-departmental cooperation perspective. The motivation of this study is to clarify the synergistic energy transformation benefits between the building and the power industry, and provide strategic support for the national energy transformation. The results indicate that the building sector energy demand will continue to grow in the future, with an expected peak around 2040, reaching 930 million tons of standard coal equivalent (Mtce). The energy demand for public service buildings in China will continue to rise. Electricity is expected to take center stage as the key energy consumption medium, with its proportion reaching 84.5%. The building sector's carbon emissions are exhibiting a progressive upward trend and will peak around 2025 at 1.04 billion tons. By 2050, green buildings will be widely distributed, electrification levels will steadily improve, and carbon emissions will decrease by 35.2% compared to 2035. The building sector's indirect power emissions have exhibited a pattern of rising initially before declining. By 2035, carbon dioxide emissions are expected to peak at 1.26 billion tons. Within the framework of a profound decarbonization of the power system, negative emissions are expected to be achieved by 2060.