Effects of land use change on runoff depth in the Songnen Plain, China

Climate change and human activities both have a considerable impact on runoff depth, which are important parts of a changing ecosystem. Nevertheless, the main focus of hydrological response research has been on investigating the impact of climate change on the depth of runoff. In contrast, there has been limited emphasis on comprehending the precise mechanisms through which changes in land use, in relation to human activities, influence runoff depth. This paper employs the MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model to simulate surface runoff in the study area from 1980 to 2020, assesses the effects of climate change and land use change on runoff depth using the runoff reduction method, and quantifies the influence of land use change on runoff depth through a spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression model. This study indicates that during the past 40 years, the average runoff depth in the Songnen Plain was 36.26 mm, exhibiting a tendency of ‘increasing-decreasing-increasing’. The impact of climate change on surface runoff depth is more substantial than that of land use change. During the impact period 1, the runoff depth diminished by 19.07 mm, with climate change contributing to a decrease of 15.89 mm (83.31% contribution). In the impact period 2, the runoff depth increased by 7.49 mm relative to the baseline period, with climate change leading to an increase of 12.73 mm (70.84% contribution). Changes in various land types within the watershed can be used to observe the influence of human activities on runoff depth. More precisely, a 10% rise in the rate of change of construction land, dry land, and unoccupied land results in an increase in runoff depth of 6.21 mm, 2.45 mm, and 1.14 mm, respectively. Conversely, a 10% rise in the rate of alteration of marsh, paddy, and forest land leads to a reduction in the depth of runoff by 9.49 mm, 6.46 mm, and 3.07 mm, respectively. This research can contribute to improving the efficiency of water and land resource utilization and optimizing land resource governance.