Water demand and supply under future water development and climate change scenarios in the upper Blue Nile basin

Integrated methodological approaches to analyzing water demand and supply under changing scenarios in a river basin are crucial for managing water resources. To better understand the influence of socioeconomic and climate change on water supply, this study employed an integrated methodological approach that included the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) hydrology and the water evaluation and planning (WEAP) models. Water development scenarios were created for two time periods: near future (2021–2040) and full development (2041–2060). During the current account period, water for irrigation delivery was balanced, and existing hydropower facilities generated energy at full capacity (3,159 GWh). However, irrigation water supply in the near future and full development scenarios shows a shortfall (267 Mm3 and 594 Mm3 under RCP4.5, and 213 Mm3 and 611 Mm3 under RCP8.5, respectively). Despite the basin's energy production will increase during the scenario periods, under-construction and planned hydropower plants are predicted to operate at less than full capacity (44,921 GWh under RCP4.5 and 44,539 GWh under RCP8.5). The study concluded that climate change-induced water availability and irrigation expansion would contribute to the water supply-demand mismatch. As a result, water resource management is required to increase water availability, minimize water demand, and reduce unmet demand. © 2024 The Authors.