Potential Distribution and Response of Camphora longepaniculata Gamble (Lauraceae) to Climate Change in China

Camphora longepaniculata is an endangered evergreen tree listed as National Class II Protected Tree Species in China, highly valued for its medicinal and economic importance. Currently, research on this species has primarily focused on its pharmaceutical properties, while its potential distribution and responses to climate change remain insufficiently explored. In this study, 36 valid occurrence records and 11 environmental variables were utilized to predict its potential distribution and assess its response to future climate scenarios. The MaxEnt model revealed that the current distribution of C. longepaniculata largely aligns with its predicted suitable habitats, with the primary range located in Sichuan Province. Furthermore, this model identified the highly suitable habitats to be predominantly concentrated in Sichuan and Shaanxi Provinces under climate change. Among the environmental variables, annual precipitation (bio12), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), and elevation (dem) were the most influential, collectively contributing over 70% to the model's predictive accuracy. Future climate projections compared to the current distribution suggest a northward expansion of suitable habitats for C. longepaniculata, although Sichuan Province is predicted to remain the core habitat under future scenarios. Kernel density analysis of occurrence points indicated that the largest concentration of distribution points is near the Sichuan Basin, reinforcing the importance of this region as a stronghold for the species. Based on the results of potential distribution and kernel density analysis, in situ conservation, artificial cultivation, and the establishment of wild protected areas and local germplasm banks are recommended for stable, suitable habitats, such as Sichuan Province and parts of Yunnan and Guizhou Provinces. This study not only sheds light on the potential geographical distribution of C. longepaniculata and its response to climate change but also provides a scientific basis for the development of targeted conservation strategies for this species.