An analysis of the decomposition and driving force of carbon emissions in transport sector in China

China’s transport carbon emissions are increasing quickly and the issue of emission reduction is urgent. This article aims to calculate and decompose China’s transport carbon emissions during 2001–2019. It first calculates the China’s transport carbon emissions by IPCC carbon emission factor method, and then applies the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model for decomposition analysis. The conclusion indicates that: (1) Diesel, gasoline, kerosene, and fuel oil are the major energy sources used in China’s transport sector, with the combined consumption of diesel and gasoline exceeding 70%, and the annual growth rate of energy consumption reached 8.92% during 2000–2019. Among them, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) have the fastest growth rate, while the only one showing a downward trend is raw coal, indicating that China’s transportation energy structure is being optimized. (2) Although China’s transport carbon emissions have been increasing, the growth rate has declined since 2013. The proportion of carbon emissions from kerosene, diesel, natural gas, and LPG increased from 2000 to 2019, while that of raw coal, gasoline, and fuel oil decreased. This suggests that the use of clean energy, air transportation, and large-scale transportation is increasing, while the use of heavily polluting fuels and small-scale road transportation is decreasing. (3) Per capita GDP is the driving factor that has the most influence on the increase of China’s transport carbon emissions. Population positively influences transportation carbon emissions too, but issues such as aging, low fertility rates, and insufficient labor force may change the direction of the impact in the next 30 years. (4) The negative effect of energy intensity on transport carbon emissions is the greatest, followed by industrial structure and energy structure. The development of highways, new energy vehicles, railway electrification, multimodal transportation, third-party logistics, and logistics information technology in China has improved the energy structure, reduced energy intensity, and brought China’s transport sector into an important stage of innovation driven and pursuit of coordinated development with the environment.