The uncertainty and deviation evaluation of system tracks and motion models

Track uncertainty and deviation directly affect the reliability of flight conflict detection and resolution, and are extremely important for trajectory-based operation. For systems track quality evaluation, a system track uncertainty and deviation model based on track points uncertainty and its root mean square error set is presented. The reference track is set as the track with the track points error not exceeding the protection range within 95% of the flight time. Based on the error probability density and t-distribution function of the track points set, therefore, the system track uncertainty and deviation model are constructed. The simulation and actual air traffic control radar data evaluation results are shown that, compared with the Kalman filtering algorithm model, the proposed model directly provides the degree of error deviation and its distribution state, which can obtain the track data and motion model quality more quickly and intuitively. The uncertainty and deviation models can be used for implementing the graphic and numerical evaluation of system track and motion model, proving that the proposed model has good practical value. © 2024 Editorial Department of Journal of Chinese Inertial Technology. All rights reserved.