METHOD TO PLANNING OF SHIPPING SCHEDULE FOR COAL TRANSPORTATION.

The main results in this paper are as follows: The scale of coal receiving bases including the number of berth, the coal storage yard capacity and unloader capacity is determined by the theory of probability; A program to operate the determined scale of facilities on economical condition can be made by the methods mentioned below: (a) The numbers of days spent by a voyage of a coaler are approximated by a normal distribution as they are dependent on the weather and other conditions. (b) The expected value that a volume of coal storage hits the upper (or lower) limits of a yard capacity after (or before) arrival of ships arranged by the pre-determined coal consumption program is calculated by using the theory of probability. (c) The shipping schedule is determined by the Branch and Bound Method under a condition that the annual cumulative expected value is minimized.