Calculation of the Series of Probability of Emergency Reduction of the Generating Capacity in Power Systems.

A method is proposed permitting considerable simplification of the process of calculation of the series of probability of emergency reduction of the generating capacity of an electric power system while retaining sufficient accuracy. The method is based on the substitution of a theoretical ″equivalent″ system with units of the same type for the initial system. The criterion of the equivalence of the systems is the equality of the moments of distribution of the probabilities of the emergency reduction of the capacity of the initial and the ″equivalent″ systems. It is shown that the proposed method makes it possible to obtain satisfactory coincidence of the curves of probability distributions for both systems.