Ecological correlates of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep herds

Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) populations commonly experience pneumonia outbreaks caused by Pasteurella spp. that result in a partial or complete dieoff. Although several factors can contribute to Pasteurella spp. transmission or infectivity in bighorn sheep, to date the importance of such factors in population declines has not been rigorously examined. We evaluated the relationship between pneumonia-induced dieoffs in bighorn sheep and environmental and biological factors by analyzing demographic information for 99 herds across the species' geographic range. Our analysis revealed that 88% of pneumonia-induced dieoffs occurred at or within 3 years of peak population numbers, which implies that density-dependent forces such as food shortage or stress contribute to bighorns' susceptibility to pneumonia. There were few differences in the growth rates of dieoff and non-dieoff populations, suggesting that pneumonia did not manifest itself demographically prior to an outbreak. On average, abundance of lambs was most dramatically reduced post outbreak (-66%) relative to that of either rams (-35%) or ewes (-42%). Deviations in normal precipitation and temperature regimes were not associated with the onset of pneumonia outbreaks, but herds found in proximity to domestic sheep tended to be more susceptible to dieoff. Our results suggest that bighorn sheep herds are rendered vulnerable to pneumonia principally through density-dependent factors, as well as through horizontal transmission of Pasteurella spp. from domestic sheep serving as reservoir hosts.