Research progress and prospect of mid-long term runoff prediction

被引：0
|
作者：
Sun Z. [1 ,2 ]
Liu Y. [2 ,3 ,4 ]
Zhang J. [1 ,2 ]
Chen H. [1 ]
Shu Z. [2 ]
Chen X. [2 ]
Jin J. [2 ,3 ,4 ]
Liu C. [2 ,3 ,4 ]
Bao Z. [2 ,3 ,4 ]
Wang G. [2 ,3 ,4 ]
机构：
[1] State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan
[2] State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing
[3] Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Nanjing
[4] Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing
来源：
Water Resources Protection | 2023年 / 39卷 / 02期
关键词：
Data-driven model; Mid-long term runoff; Physical causes of runoff; Prediction method; Uncertainty;
D O I：
10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2023.02.017
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
A summary was made on the the driving factors of mid-long term runoff evolution as well as the classification of mid-long term runoff prediction methods and models from angles of development processes and research methods. The research progress of mid-long term runoff prediction was reviewed from four aspects, including research techniques, physical causes, data-driven models, and prediction uncertainty, and the deficiencies in the research of the key driving factors of runoff and their driving mechanisms, the physical interpretability of data-driven methods, and the uncertainty of prediciton were analyzed. It is pointed out that future research should focus on physical causes of mid-long term runoff evolution, the applicability and reliability of prediction methods, and application of relevant research results of mid-long term runoff evolution. © 2023, Editorial Board of Water Resources Protection. All rights reserved.
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页码：136 / 144and223
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