Contribution of ultra-processed food and animal-plant protein intake ratio to the environmental impact of Belgian diets

There is growing concern about the various impacts of food consumption, both on human and planetary health. Given the context-specific nature of consumption patterns, evaluating their national-level impacts is crucial for proactive policy development. This research aims to evaluate the environmental impact of current Belgian diets, with particular attention to the contribution of food groups, ultra-processed foods (UPF), and the animal-to-plant protein ratio. The methodology consists of three key stages. Firstly, the Belgian diet was summarised, based on data from the Belgian National Food Consumption Survey 2014/2015. Secondly, the origin of the most frequently consumed foods was traced using trade databases. Finally, a cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment was conducted to determine the impact of Belgian diets on climate change, water use, land use, and fossil resource scarcity. In this third step, an iterative procedure for selecting the food items to be included in the study was performed. The iterative approach resulted in the inclusion of 227 food items in the analysis. The results indicate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 4.4 [4.27-4.54] kg CO2-equivalent per person per day. Red meat (35 %), beverages (16 %), dairy products (12 %) and snacks (10 %) are identified as primary contributors to climate change. Similar results were observed for land use impacts. Water use and fossil resource scarcity exhibited different trends, with beverages being the most impactful food group. Moreover, UPF account for 50 % of the total climate change and land use impacts, with a linear relationship observed between increased UPF consumption and GHG emissions and land use. A similar linear trend is observed between the ratio of animal-toplant protein intake and both climate change and land use impact categories. A shift from the current protein ratio to a ratio of 40/60, as suggested in the Flemish Green Deal Protein Shift has been shown to result in a reduction in GHG emissions of the diet by 29 %. This study emphasises the need to target the consumption of high-impact foods such as UPF and animal-based products. Future research will investigate the relationship between environmental and health impacts.