Evaluation of supply chain default risk based on fuzzy influence diagram

After introducing the supply chain default risk and its causes, based on the literature review of the evaluation methods of supply chain risks, a new evaluation method called the fuzzy influence diagram which combines fuzzy sets with influence diagram theory and considers the interaction among risk factors is proposed. Furthermore, an evaluation model of the supply chain default risk is established based on the research of default risk evaluation and the fuzzy influence diagram. First, the model takes the loss of risk as a valuable node, risk factors as random nodes, drawing a risk analysis influence diagram. Then, three kinds of fuzzy sets are defined, including state fuzzy sets, probabilistic fuzzy sets and a relation fuzzy matrix. Finally, by using the fuzzy algorithm to evaluate nodes, the probability of risk occurrence and the degrees of risk loss are obtained. On the basis of the model, an instance application is used to prove its utility and effectiveness.