China energy service demand projection model

被引：0
|
作者：
Liu, Jia [1 ]
Chen, Wenying [2 ]
Liu, Deshun [2 ]
机构：
[1] School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
[2] Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
来源：
Qinghua Daxue Xuebao/Journal of Tsinghua University | 2010年 / 50卷 / 03期
关键词：
Aggregates - Population statistics - Steelmaking - Economics;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
A China energy service demand projection model (ESDPM), including a saturation limit module was built for projections of China's energy service demand, based on the analysis of the characteristics of China's final energy consumption and the aggregate model methodology. Projections of China's energy service demand for five energy-intensive sectors are made based on assumptions concerning future population and economic growth. The model shows that the production growth of the main energy-intensive industrial sectors of China will slow down gradually from 2020, reaching peak values at 2035 and then remaining stable. The peak steel production will be 740 Mt, cement will be 1 780 Mt, ammonia will be 90 Mt, and aluminum will be 30 Mt. Paper production will continue to grow with production in 2050 of 530 Mt.
引用
收藏
页码：481 / 484
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