Analysis of ecological carrying capacity change and driving factors at urban fringe: A case of Hangzhou city

Taking the urban fringe of Hangzhou city as a case, based on the computation of the dynamic change of ecological carrying capacity, the tendency was promulgated that the ecological carrying capacity dropped year by year and had evolved from ecology surplus to ecological deficit. Seven major factors influencing ecological carrying capacity were selected to analyze the evolution mechanism by gray system theory. The very extensive scale of population and the situation of energy consumption increasing rapidly these years are the keys to the downward trend of the ecological carrying capacity in the urban fringe of Hangzhou city. Some sustainable strategies at the non-constructed urban fringe were put forward on population control policy, energy restructuring, establishment of the mechanism for ecological compensation, and innovation on the pattern of industrial development.