Forecast of innovative activity in key areas of energy transition technologies based on analysis of patent activity

Energy transition technologies aimed at increasing energy efficiency are a tool for achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement to limit the increase in average annual temperature. To increase the efficiency of implementation of these technologies, it is necessary to forecast innovative activity in the areas of hydrogen energy, CCUS and information technology based on taking into account key influencing factors, the contribution of sectors of the classical fuel and energy complex and the level of mutual influence of countries. Based on the analysis, a forecast was made to increase the share of the sector of international vertically integrated oil companies (VIOCs) in the total number of patents in the field of hydrogen energy by 2.5% points. and an increase in the share of the national vertically integrated oil company sector in the area of CCUS technologies by 10% points. by 2027. It has been determined that the innovative activity of the electricity and coal industry sectors in energy transition technologies is most resistant to the influence of external geopolitical and infrastructural crises. The market for CCUS technologies is currently more susceptible to the effects of international cooperation than the market for hydrogen energy technologies. The authors show that a decrease in the level of international integration by 25% points. over the past 5 years has led to a decrease in innovative activity in energy transition technologies by 15% points. In order to identify international barriers to the introduction of technologies, the authors provide a comparative analysis of the level of mutual influence of countries within the framework of international economic associations using the examples of the SCO, BRICS, and MERCOSUR. The highest level of mutual influence was identified within the framework of SCO interaction. According to the analysis, the entry of new countries into BRICS in 2024 will lead to a decrease in the integral level of innovation activity by 30% points. from the current value and strength of mutual influence of countries by 50% points. Taking into account the identified positive relationship between revenue and innovative activity in the area of information technology, it is recommended to direct investments primarily in favor of Industry 4.0 solutions.