Research on risk assessment method of disaster chain based on complex network

Considering the expansion of disaster losses caused by disasters chain effects, to establish the risk assessment model of disaster chain, this paper proposed a modeling method of disaster chain risk assessment based on complex network structure. At first, the evolution characteristic of disaster chains was characterized adopting complex network structure. The disaster chain mechanism was mathematical description based on the definition of disaster chain. Then, learning from the risk assessment method and model of supply chains, taking complex network as the carrier, we obtained the joint probability distribution of disaster loss grades of each node using Bayesian formula. And the risk assessment model of disaster chain was built up. The risk measurement mode was proposed that the risk loss expectation values of child nodes should be used to characterize the risk of child nodes acted by parent nodes. At last, using Typhoon disaster chain in Zhuhai as an application instance, we assessed the risk of Typhoon disaster chain. The results indicate that the model established has higher consistency with actual situation. That also shows the risk superposition of space and time has been considered in the assessment model taking disaster chain as the center, and the relationship between the disasters has been distinguished. So it can truly, quantitatively, accurately portray the risk caused by the disaster chain evolution process, and provide a reliable theoretical basis for the regional disaster risk management. ©, 2015, Systems Engineering Society of China. All right reserved.