Risk and Benefit Analysis of Hydro-wind-solar Multi-energy System Considering the One-day Ahead Output Forecast Uncertainty

被引：0
|
作者：
Wen X. [1 ,2 ]
Sun Y. [1 ]
Tan Q. [1 ]
Lei X. [2 ]
Ding Z. [1 ]
Liu Z. [1 ]
Wang H. [2 ]
机构：
[1] College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Eng., Hohai Univ., Nanjing
[2] State Key Lab. of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Inst. of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing
来源：
Gongcheng Kexue Yu Jishu/Advanced Engineering Sciences | 2020年 / 52卷 / 03期
关键词：
Hydro-wind-solar; Hydropower operation; Multi-energy integration; Power generation plan; Risk analysis;
D O I：
10.15961/j.jsuese.201900965
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
The hydro-wind-solar complementary system is an important innovation to improve the overall utilization benefits of renewable energy in China. With the higher penetration of renewable generation resources such as wind power and solar power, the uncertainty after integrating wind and solar is the core problem of multi-energy complementary system research. The risks and benefits of multi-energy system considering the uncertainty of one-day ahead wind and solar output forecasts was discussed. Specifically, the risk and benefit evaluation indices are proposed from three aspects of reliability, stability and economy. The short-term optimal operation model of multi-energy system is established, and the one-day ahead power generation plan is proposed using output predictions of diverse power plants. Then, the actual operation process of hydropower station is simulated and updated according to the actual output of wind and solar power plants following the one-day ahead power generation plan. Finally, the planed and actual operation process of each power station are compared to evaluate the comprehensive impacts of output forecast uncertainty on the risks and benefits of the multi-energy system. The multi-energy complementary system of Jinping Ⅰ in Yalong River Basin, which takes in 2.09 million kW solar power and 1.05 million kW wind power, is used as the study case. The results show that the power generation benefits of the multi-energy system have increased by 37.13% compared with each power plant running independently, with more stable total output process. The multi-energy system shows good reliability at the annual scale. During the low water level period of the reservoir, the frequency of load loss condition increases significantly, accounting for more than 96% in the annual cycle, the system reliability is correspondingly undermined. During the flood season, the maximum release of the reservoir increased by 47.06% after multi-energy integration, which brings certain risks to the power generation and flood control of the basin. © 2020, Editorial Department of Advanced Engineering Sciences. All right reserved.
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页码：32 / 41
页数：9
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