Climate Change and Domestic Migration in China

This paper constructs theoretical and empirical models to investigate, under the influences of China's hukou policy, the relationship between spikes in temperatures and temporary migrations of Chinese rural residents. Applying weather data from both the provincial and county levels, the paper first demonstrates the negative impacts of extremely high temperatures on agricultural production. Then, using a fixed effect model, and applying an individual-level panel dataset,which includes information from more than 30,000 Chinese rural residents, the paper shows that the likelihood of a rural resident's future choice to work outside his or her village increases when crop yields decrease. This result confirms the hypothesis built in the paper's utility maximization theoretical model of an individual rural resident. To mitigate the risks brought about by disasterinduced agricultural production decreases, the paper proposes reforms of, and improvements in existing agricultural policy insurance services.