Weakness Identification of Integrated Energy Systems Considering Operation Risk and Resilience

In the background of energy transition, the integrated energy system has developed rapidly. And the multi-energy flow coupling operation mode has increased the complexity of operation. When random factor disturbance occurs, the safe and stable operation of the integrated energy system (IES) will be threatened. In response to this problem, this paper proposes a weakness identification method of IES considering both operation risk and resilience. Firstly, a probabilistic multi-energy flow calculation model for the power-heat-gas coupling IES based on the cumulant method is introduced. Using probabilistic multi-energy flow calculation, the operation risk assessment indicators and assessment method under normal conditions are proposed. Then, for the failure under extreme disasters, the operation resilience assessment indicators are established from the perspective of robustness. Finally, considering both random change of source and load and uncertainty disturbance of random failures, this paper proposes the comprehensive risk-resilience two-dimensional indices to determine the weakness of the IES. The case study shows that the weakness identification assessment method considering risk and resilience can quantitatively analyze the weakness level of the integrated energy system, which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method. © 2022 Automation of Electric Power Systems Press.