Water-energy-emissions nexus – an integrated analysis applied to a case study

Brazil has an electric system based on hydropower, especially in the State of Minas Gerais, in the Southeast Region. Competition for water use, water scarcity, economic growth, climate change and the lack of consistent and continuous energy planning are some of the problems related to planning and monitoring energy supply systems. Due to the lack of regional studies on expansion planning considering the water-energy-emissions nexus and its consequences, this work presents an integrated analysis of a case study on how changes in water supply and economic growth can impact hydropower and electricity generation in the State of Minas Gerais. The main results include the reduction in hydropower generation at the end of the study horizon (2019 – 2049) between (-16.8%) and (-7.8%) considering water restriction scenarios. The final electricity demand, in the reference scenario, increased by 40.8% and in alternative scenarios there was an increase between 63.6% and 89.5% when reductions in the rainfall regime were considered. © 2022, Aalborg University press. All rights reserved.