Managing the Supply-Demand Mismatches and Potential Flows of Ecosystem Services in Jilin Province, China, from a Regional Integration Perspective

Regional integration strategically reorganizes spatially heterogeneous resources to maximize the overall benefits. Ecosystem services (ESs) are promising targets for regional integration due to their inherent heterogeneity and mobility, yet research in this area remains limited. This study quantifies crop production (CP), water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), and habitat quality (HQ) for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020 using the InVEST model and identifies four ES bundles through a K-means cluster analysis. A conceptual ecosystem service flow (ESF) network at the service cluster scale is constructed based on county-level ESF data. The results reveal the following: (1) there is an upward trend in the ES budget for all services from 2000 to 2020, coupled with spatial mismatches between supply and demand; (2) deficit nodes for CP and CS services are concentrated in densely populated districts, while deficits in WY and HQ services are mainly in western Jilin Province; (3) Bundles I and II act as "sources" of ES, Bundle IV serves as a "sink", and Bundle III is the only cluster with a CP surplus, balancing CP services across the province. In addition, this study provides ecological perspectives for understanding regional integration by suggesting differentiated integrated management for different ecosystem bundles.