Pathways Toward Improving the Energy Efficiency of Residential Air-Conditioning Systems in Saudi Arabia

In Saudi Arabia, the residential electricity consumption approaches 50%, primarily driven by air conditioners (AC). This study explores the potential energy savings and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reductions up to 2030 through three scenarios: business as usual (BAU), continuous improvement scenario (CIS), and accelerated improvement scenario (AIS). BAU scenario assumes that the current energy efficiency ratio (EER) of 11.8 BTU/Wh is maintained until 2030. CIS considers a 5% EER improvement in new AC stock every two or five years, while AIS assumes a 10% improvement in the EER at the same intervals. Additionally, energy savings and emission reductions possible from varying adoption levels of a new refrigerant (R32) are estimated for three scenarios. Finally, the CO2 emission reduction under each scenario is computed for two extreme cases of grid emission factor. BAU scenario predicts energy savings of up to 17.7 TWh in 2030 compared to 2020 energy consumption figures. AIS with two-year intervals results in additional energy savings of 10.1 TWh in 2030 and cumulative energy savings of 37.1 TWh over a decade compared to the BAU scenario. Even CIS with five-year intervals yields additional energy savings of 1.69 TWh in 2030 and 5.1 TWh cumulatively compared to the BAU scenario. In comparison, the introduction of the new refrigerant results in cumulative energy savings of 10.2 TWh in the best-case scenario. These findings emphasize the importance of enhancing the EER of residential AC systems as a priority in energy efficiency policy.