Exploring the relationships between potential, performance, and athleticism in elite youth soccer players

Talent identification of young soccer players is a significant consideration for elite youth soccer organisations, with decisions on players often being made based on the subjective expert opinion of scouts and coaches. Previous research has suggested that scouts and coaches purportedly consider a multitude of factors before arriving at their decisions. However, to date, limited research exists regarding how coaches evaluate player potential within such organisations and how the consideration of further data may influence such evaluations of a player's future potential. Therefore, the aim of this study was to present ratings of perceived potential in an elite youth soccer academy and explore the relationships between a player's perceived potential, athleticism, and perceived level of current match performance. Using 181 player observations, findings demonstrated that ratings of players' perceived potential decreased within older age groups and were the lowest in the senior academy age group (U18). Furthermore, a mixed effects ordinal regression model suggested that coaches' perceptions of a player's future potential demonstrated strong relationships with current match performance and athleticism. Increases in a player's mean match rating significantly increased the odds of them being perceived to have higher potential and increases in athleticism also demonstrated a positive relationship with increased perceptions of potential. The findings have implications for youth soccer organisations, providing insight into the distribution of ratings of potential within an elite youth soccer academy, and demonstrating that further data (match performance and athleticism) is related to, and may influence, coaches' perceptions of player potential.