Mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions aligned with global energy transition: Scenarios of elements use

Several proposed technologies (e.g., renewables and carbon capture and storage (CCS)) to reduce GHG emissions face significant challenges like accessing critical raw materials. This study assesses the demand for 29 mineral elements in technologies. A dynamic material flow analysis model was applied to examine five global climate change mitigation scenarios to 2050. The scenarios selected are the Net Zero Emission (NZE), 1.5 degrees C, Announced Pledges (AP) and Stated Policy (STEP) for the year 2022, and the Sustainable Development (SD) for the year 2021. The results show that demand for tellurium will increase and cumulatively exceed current reserves in the AP, SD, NZE and 1.5 degrees C scenarios from 2022 to 2050, and demand for indium and cobalt will exceed reserves in NZE and 1.5 degrees C scenarios. In the STEP scenario, elements will not face shortages. The findings indicate that specific technology choices, such as the high use of thin-film solar photovoltaic (PV), can significantly impact demand for particular elements like tellurium. The results demonstrate that the selection of the technology and scenario for GHG mitigation considerably impacts element consumption. The novelty of this work consists of its supply-efficient approach to the element demand for technology in different energy sectors including in the energy generation, distribution, storage, and consumption sectors in each recent scenario. The results presented in this study could assist policymakers in the selection of technological solutions for climate change mitigation.