Ecological sustainability of marine fishery in coastal countries of the "Belt and Road": spatial-temporal features and future predictions

Marine fishery is a crucial component of marine living resource utilization, directly affecting marine ecosystems, human food and nutrition security, and fishermen's livelihoods. It is important to focus on the ecological sustainability of marine fishery. This study took coastal countries of the Belt and Road (B&R) as study areas, and analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution and future trend in the marine fishery sustainability by ecological footprint (EF) model based on the component approach, and exploratory spatial analysis tools. Results showed that from 1990 to 2020, marine fishery total EF in study areas had a fluctuating growth, and capture fishery and aquaculture accounted for the vast majority. Per capita EF of both showed a scissor-shaped growth trend. Meanwhile, marine fishery total EF presented a spatial distribution pattern of "high in the north and low in the south, high in the east and low in the west", with significant spatial clustering modes of "HH" and "LL". The trajectory of its gravity center was continuously approaching the direction of China, and the area of the standard deviation ellipse was gradually diminishing, meaning that spatial clustering features were strengthened. Additionally, marine fishery total EF from 2024 to 2035 would continue increasing, albeit at a potentially slower pace. Therefore, some policy recommendations for cross-border cooperation, the entire fishery industry chain and technological innovation were proposed. These findings enriched the theoretical system of existing studies, and provided decision-making references for the sustainable development and cross-border cooperation of marine fishery between China and the B&R coastal countries.