Spatial Dynamic Interaction Effects and Formation Mechanisms of Air Pollution in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration in China

Accurately identifying the dynamic interaction effects and network structure characteristics of air pollution is essential for effective collaborative governance. This study investigates the spatial dynamic interactions of air pollution among 30 cities in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration using convergent cross mapping. Social network analysis is applied to assess the overall and node characteristics of the spatial interaction network, while key driving factors are analyzed using an exponential random graph model. The findings reveal that air pollution levels in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration initially increase before they decrease, with heavily polluted cities transitioning from centralized to sporadic distribution. Among the interactions, Heze's air pollution impact on Kaifeng was the strongest, while Xinxiang's impact on Changzhi was the weakest. The emission and receiving effects peaked during 2010-2012. The air pollution interactions among cities exhibit significant network characteristics, with block model results indicating that emitting and receiving relationships are primarily concentrated in the bidirectional spillover plate. Natural factors such as temperature and precipitation significantly influence the spatial interaction network. Economic and social factors like economic level and industrial sector proportion also have a significant impact. However, population density does not influence the spatial interaction network. This study contributes to understanding the spatial network of air pollution, thereby enhancing strategies for optimizing regional collaborative governance efforts to address air pollution.