Analysing the capacity of multispectral indices to map the spatial distribution of potential post-fire soil losses based on soil burn severity

The area burned in Spain exceeded historical records in 2022, when exceptionally warm conditions influenced wildfire events. The predicted intensification of wildfire regimes includes an increase in frequency, severity, and size. Therefore, a study of the wildfires that occurred in 2022 is necessary to understand their behaviour and possible environmental impacts. The objective of this study is to analyse the applicability of using spectral indices and Geographic Information System (GIS) approaches to map the spatial distribution and estimate potential soil losses using Sentinel-2 imagery and fire severity field data. Soil losses were estimated using an empirical model based on soil burn severity data collected in the field after wildfire. The relationship between the Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII), Difference Normalized Wildfire Ash Index (dNWAI), and the Blue Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (BNDVI) with the estimated soil losses was then evaluated. In addition, the influence of different time scales of the satellite images was analysed. The first period considered (Date I) ranges from 8 to 20 days after the beginning of the wildfire, which coincides with the field data collection. The second period considered (Date II) ranges from 28 to 35 days after the start of the wildfire. The results obtained showed a significant dependence relationship between the BNDVI index (using satellite images of Date I) and the estimated soil losses (R-2 = 0.756), while the results of the NDII (R-2 = 0.31) and dNWAI (R-2 = 0.061), showed no spatial relationship with the estimated soil losses. Three of the largest wildfires in 2022 in Spain were analysed, and the results showed strong correlations of BNDVI index for Folgoso do Courel (R-2 = 0.808), for Carballeda de Valedorras (R-2 = 0.906), and for Sierra de la Culebra (R-2 = 0.939). In addition, these results allowed the mapping and quantification of potential soil losses in areas where fire severity was high, totalling similar to 2,50,000 Mg ha(-1) in Folgoso do Courel, similar to 3,70,000 Mg ha(-1) in Carballeda de Valdeorras, and similar to 4,70,000 Mg ha(-1) in Sierra de la Culebra. Moreover, BNDVI values for estimating soil loss vary by vegetation type, and there is a positive correlation between severity classes and the BNDVI index. This approach can inform post-fire land management decisions in future wildfires and could be applied to other regions.