Statewide Community College Promise Programs: An Event History Analysis

Between the 2014 adoption of the Tennessee Promise Act and 2019, 16 states enacted their own statewide promise program policies making community college tuition free for numerous students. In this study, we sought to determine which state-level factors predicted the adoption of a statewide promise program policy. Using data from 2013 to 2019, we conducted an event history analysis to identify state-level political, economic, social, and higher education system conditions that predicted promise program policy adoption. Partisan control of state government, total state population, percentage of state population identified as white, and percentage of state appropriations allocated to community colleges were associated with statewide promise program policy adoption. Our findings suggest that there is no single factor or grand narrative that results in promise program policy adoption. Instead, the results highlight the complexities within the policymaking process. Between 2014 and 2019, 16 states enacted statewide promise program policies making community college tuition free for numerous students. Policymaking is a complex process that involves a variety of actors and unique state contexts. Using publicly available data from 2013 to 2019, we examined partisan make-up of state governments, economic conditions, social factors, and higher education systems to see if one or more of these factors predicted promise program policy adoption. The result of our study suggests that there is no single factor or grand narrative that results in promise program policy adoption.