Uncertainty, Risk, and Decision-Making: Concepts, Guidelines, and Educational Implications

The ability to handle decision problems in conditions of uncertainty and risk is an important skill for contemporary societies and ought to be an aspect of the scientific literacy sought in science education. In this article we present an overview and synthesis of the basic concepts and accounts of risk-related research on the topic of risk and decision-making under uncertainty, with a view to supplementing the science education literature and to contributing to the development of a sound, comprehensive framework for handling these topics in science education. We first describe and compare the reasoning, possibilities, and limitations of the basic risk management strategies - risk-based, precaution-based, and discourse-based - and assess their usefulness to decision-making in differing degrees of uncertainty. We then discuss kinds of discourse (epistemological, reflective, and participatory) needed to deal with disagreements that result from uncertainties and ambiguities of risk-related scientific knowledge and from different socio-political views. Based on these analyses we consider that the analytic-deliberative framework proposed in risk research literature offers a sound and comprehensive basis for risk evaluation and management and for teaching these topics. We also address two topics that we consider of special importance for reaching appropriate decisions under uncertainty. The first concerns criteria for assessing the credibility and severity of alleged risks, so as to avoid over- or underestimating them; the second concerns views, attitudes, responses, and proposals relating to radical modern technological innovations and the uncertainty that characterizes the assessment and management of their risks. Finally, we discuss some implications of the present analysis for promoting epistemologies and the reasoning and decision-making abilities needed for dealing with contemporary social concerns and global risks.