Forecasting of Daily Heat Production in a District Heating Plant Using a Neural Network

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be used for accurate heat load forecasting in district heating systems (DHSs). This paper presents an application of a shallow ANN with two hidden layers in the case of a local DHS. The developed model was used to write a simple application in Python 3.10 that can be used in the operation of a district heating plant to carry out a preliminary analysis of heat demand, taking into account the ambient temperature on a given day. The model was trained using the real data from the period 2019-2022. The training was sufficient for the number of 150 epochs. The prediction effectiveness indicator was proposed. In the considered case, the effectiveness of the trained network was 85% and was better in comparison to five different regression models. The developed tool was based on an open-source programming environment and proved its ability to predict heating load.