Protectionism, bilateral integration, and the cross section of exchange rate returns in US presidential debates

被引：0
|
作者：
de Boer, Jantke [1 ]
Eichler, Stefan [2 ,3 ]
Roevekamp, Ingmar [2 ]
机构：
[1] Ruhr Univ Bochum, Fac Management & Econ, Chair Int Monetary Macroecon, Univ Str 150, D-44801 Bochum, Germany
[2] Tech Univ Dresden, Fac Business & Econ, Chair Int Monetary Econ, Helmholtzstr 10, D-01069 Dresden, Germany
[3] Halle Inst Econ Res, Dept Macroecon, Kleine Maerkerstr 8, D-06108 Halle, Saale, Germany
来源：
JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE | 2024年 / 147卷
关键词：
Exchange rates; US presidential elections; TV debates; Protectionism; Bilateral trade integration; TIME PRICE DISCOVERY; POLITICAL CYCLES; CURRENT ACCOUNT; STOCK; TARIFFS; EMPLOYMENT; MARKETS; NEWS;
D O I：
10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103134
中图分类号：
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号：
0202 ;
摘要：
We study the impact of US presidential election TV debates on the cross section of intraday exchange rate returns of 96 currencies from 1996 to 2016. The performance of the candidates in the debate is an exogenous shock to the election probability. We find that currencies of countries with high levels of bilateral foreign trade with the US depreciate if the election probability of the protectionist candidate increases during the debate, while no significant impact is detected for countries with bilateral US exports to GDP below 2 percent. Expectations about protectionist measures are the main transmission channel of debate outcomes, while the candidates' stance towards military and immigration play a minor role.
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页数：20
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