Spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, northern China

Protection and optimization of cultivated land resources are of great significance to national food security. Cultivated land conversion in northern China has increased in recent years due to the industrialization and urbanization of society. However, the assessment of cultivated land conversion in this area is insufficient, posing a potential risk to cultivated land resources. This study evaluated the evolution and spatiotemporal patterns of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, and the driving factors to improve rational utilization and to protect cultivated land resources. The spatiotemporal patterns of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia were analyzed using the cultivated land conversion index, kernel density analysis, a standard deviation ellipse model, and a geographic detector. Results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the trends in cultivated land conversion area and rate in Inner Mongolia exhibited fluctuating growth, with the total area of cultivated land conversion reaching 7307.59 km2 at a rate of 6.69%. Spatial distribution of cultivated land conversion was primarily concentrated in the Hetao Plain, Nengjiang Plain, Liaohe Plain, and the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos urban agglomeration. Moreover, the standard deviational ellipse of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia exhibited a directional southwest-northeast-southwest-northeast distribution, with the northeast-southwest direction identified as the main driving force of spatial change in cultivated land conversion. Meanwhile, cultivated land conversion exhibited an increase-decrease-increase change process, indicating that spatial distribution of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia became gradually apparent within the study period. The geographic detector results further revealed that the main driving factors of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia were the share of secondary and tertiary industries and per-unit area yield of grain, with explanatory rates of 57.00%, 55.00%, and 51.00%, respectively. Additionally, improved agricultural production efficiency and the coordinated development of population urbanization and industry resulted in cultivated land conversion. Collectively, the findings of this study indicated that, from 2000 to 2020, the cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia was significant and fluctuated in time, and had strong spatial heterogeneity. The primary drivers of these events included the effects of agriculture, population, and social economy.