Late Pleistocene Fault Slip Rate within the Bole Basin: Insights into deformation kinematics in the Central Tian Shan

Tian Shan is a vast and highly seismically active intracontinental mountain range. GPS measurements and field studies have shown that E-W and NW-SE trending thrusts and fault-related folds are distributed across central Tian Shan. However, few studies have determined the fault and fault-related-fold activity in the Bole Basin, the northernmost part of central Tian Shan. In this study, we focus on the Alashak Fold, which is situated along the southern margin of the Bole Basin. Using high-resolution uncrewed aerial vehicle-Digital Elevation Model data, field observations, and detailed mapping, we determined that the Alashak Fold is characterized by a trishear fault-propagation fold. Along the Alashak River, we identified five levels of fluvial surfaces, the T3 terrace was continuously preserved across the fold. Radiocarbon and surficial 10Be dating were used to determine the exposure age of the deformed T3 terrace. The folding characteristics of T3, trishear inversed modeling, and abandonment age indicate that the Alashak Fault has an uplift rate of 0.8 +/- 0.3 mm/yr, a dip-slip rate of 4.2 +/- 1.2 mm/yr, and a crustal shortening rate of 4.0 +/- 1.2 mm/yr since the late Pleistocene, respectively. The Alashak and Latgan Faults intersect at a depth of 1.2 km, enclosing a wedge-shaped block. Our study emphasizes that tectonic activity along the southern margin of the Bole Basin has played a significant role in north-south shortening within central Tian Shan, as measured by geological measurements since the late Pleistocene. The Alashak Fault can potentially generate moderate-strong (Mw 5.0-7.0) earthquakes, while the Alashak and Latgan Faults can generate major (Mw 7.2) earthquakes.