How wind forecast updates are balanced in coupled European intraday markets

The market coupling of adjacent market zones is a key element in terms of coping with rising levels of uncertainty in the European energy system due to the adoption of more volatile renewable energy sources. An adequate analysis of this issue yet requires an appropriate consideration of uncertainty along with a detailed modelling of market coupling. Thus, we present a novel approach combining a comprehensive unit commitment and dispatch model with a sophisticated methodology to reflect the uncertainty of wind power generation by considering forecast updates for the German market region in the market clearing process. Subsequently, we investigate the impact of uncertainty on cross-border electricity flows in a European case study. Our results show that all adjacent market zones and all relevant technologies significantly contribute to balancing forecast updates in Germany, underlining the benefits of intraday market coupling. Further, we observe that a joint and unrestricted intraday market is the most cost-efficient market solution. Finally, our analyses show that more extensive market coupling is indispensable for the further integration of renewable energy sources in the future. This study introduces a novel approach that combines a detailed unit commitment and dispatch model with a method to account for the uncertainty in wind power generation. It examines the effects of uncertainty on cross-border electricity flows in Europe, highlighting the significant contributions of adjacent market zones and various technologies in balancing these uncertainties. The findings advocate for broader market coupling as a cost-effective solution for integrating renewable energy sources more efficiently in the European energy system. image